According
to the data released by the Office of the Textile Commissioner of
India, this cotton season (October-September 2012), cotton production
would be at 345 lakh bales of which 95 lakh bales have already been
exported and a further 20 lakh bales are expected to be exported.
This
would amount to an availability of 230 lakh bales of cotton for
domestic consumption for this season and a drop of over 11% in the
cotton available for consumption in comparison with the last cotton
season. Despite this, cotton prices are unlikely to go up in the short
term as most textile companies are cautious in buying raw materials.
According
to the latest data available with the Confederation of Indian Textile
Industry, cotton prices (average spot prices of Shankar-6 variety) are
trading at a discount of around 17% at Rs 34,677 per candy on a
year-on-year basis.
The
fall in cotton prices was due to the conscious decision many textile
companies in the industry's value chain to avoid new orders. These
companies, which purchased large quantities for future use, had been
unable to get rid of the inventory due to weak demand for apparel in
2010-2011.
According
to an analysis of the Confederation of Indian Textile Industry, in the
December 2011 quarter itself, textile and clothing production showed no
growth. Textiles and apparel production fell by 3.2% and 6.8%,
respectively in October, the seventh consecutive month of decline.
There
is still a pile of unsold inventory with most companies. One indication
of this is the extended end-of-season-sale of apparels, which has gone
well beyond January this year. Hence, there is little chance of heavy
buying this cotton season unlike in the past. Also, there is a high
possibility that apparel demand in the US and European markets will be
subdued due to the end of the festive season.
Source: economictimes.indiatimes.com
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